Predictive markets currently give Barack Obama (the Democratic ticket) around a 68% to be reelected in 2012, but I think this number should be more like a meager 20% chance of Obama being reelected. My reasoning has to do with his 2008 campaign message, the situation he is inheriting, and the nature of the American people. I want to be clear that my prediction isn't that Obama will do a bad job, but rather that the dynamics are already in place so that he will not get reelected in 2012 regardless of what he does.
One major aspect of Barack Obama's campaign message was purposefully unspecific slogans like hope, change, yes-we-can, and believe. Vague slogans like these allow people to believe their vision of the future is the same as Obama's even though in reality things are likely very different. After four years of Obama being in office, these vague slogans will be replaced with specific thoughts like "I believe Obama did something but it wasn't the change I was hoping for".
Another major aspect of Obama's campaign was that things are bad in America, it is Bush's fault, and McCain would be four more years of the same. In 2012 Obama will not be able to focus on how bad things are, Obama will not be able to blame Bush any more, and Obama will be the "more of the same" candidate. He will no longer have the luxury of being evaluated on the vision he creates, but instead he will be evaluated on what he was able to achieve.
A good campaign can deal with the issues mentioned above, however, because of the magnitude of what the Obama presidency is inheriting there is no way Obama will come out after four years looking good. You have the global recession, dependence on foreign oil, the housing crisis, the credit crisis, the ongoing challenge of keeping America safe, and the list goes on and on. The global recession, housing crisis, and credit crisis are already set in motion to get worse before they get better. Reducing our dependence on foreign oil is going to involve a tremendous short term expense before we can reap the long term rewards. Progress can't really be measured in four years.
Any logical thinker would realize that Obama isn't responsible for all the issues facing America, but after four years in office the demanding nature of the American people will be such that they expect our leader to successfully address these issues our country faces. If Obama does nothing and things haven't miraculously gotten better then Obama's inaction will be blamed. If Obama does something and things haven't gotten better then Obama's actions will be blamed. I simply can't envision a scenario where Obama wins in 2012. It makes you wonder why he is currently a 2:1 favorite.
