Predictive markets currently give Barack Obama (the Democratic ticket) around a 68% to be reelected in 2012, but I think this number should be more like a meager 20% chance of Obama being reelected. My reasoning has to do with his 2008 campaign message, the situation he is inheriting, and the nature of the American people. I want to be clear that my prediction isn't that Obama will do a bad job, but rather that the dynamics are already in place so that he will not get reelected in 2012 regardless of what he does.
One major aspect of Barack Obama's campaign message was purposefully unspecific slogans like hope, change, yes-we-can, and believe. Vague slogans like these allow people to believe their vision of the future is the same as Obama's even though in reality things are likely very different. After four years of Obama being in office, these vague slogans will be replaced with specific thoughts like "I believe Obama did something but it wasn't the change I was hoping for".
Another major aspect of Obama's campaign was that things are bad in America, it is Bush's fault, and McCain would be four more years of the same. In 2012 Obama will not be able to focus on how bad things are, Obama will not be able to blame Bush any more, and Obama will be the "more of the same" candidate. He will no longer have the luxury of being evaluated on the vision he creates, but instead he will be evaluated on what he was able to achieve.
A good campaign can deal with the issues mentioned above, however, because of the magnitude of what the Obama presidency is inheriting there is no way Obama will come out after four years looking good. You have the global recession, dependence on foreign oil, the housing crisis, the credit crisis, the ongoing challenge of keeping America safe, and the list goes on and on. The global recession, housing crisis, and credit crisis are already set in motion to get worse before they get better. Reducing our dependence on foreign oil is going to involve a tremendous short term expense before we can reap the long term rewards. Progress can't really be measured in four years.
Any logical thinker would realize that Obama isn't responsible for all the issues facing America, but after four years in office the demanding nature of the American people will be such that they expect our leader to successfully address these issues our country faces. If Obama does nothing and things haven't miraculously gotten better then Obama's inaction will be blamed. If Obama does something and things haven't gotten better then Obama's actions will be blamed. I simply can't envision a scenario where Obama wins in 2012. It makes you wonder why he is currently a 2:1 favorite.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Saturday, November 8, 2008
In Politics, How Much Psychological Manipulation is Acceptable?
We all know and accept that a certain amount of psychological manipulation occurs in politics. For example, a McCain advertisement might have ended with McCain's face appearing right next to an American flag to suggest that McCain is patriotic and good for our country. As another example, an Obama advertisement might have shown images of McCain and Bush repeatedly together to suggest that McCain is four more years of Bush. This type of thing happens all the time in politics and it is generally considered acceptable.
However, when does this sort of manipulation go over the line? What if you played a McCain commercial backwards and it said over and over that "You will vote for McCain because it will make you feel good". Most people, including myself, would consider that unacceptable psychological manipulation. What if there was some white noise in a McCain commercial and it could be shown that, embedded in the white noise, was a clear message that said "You must vote for McCain because our country needs McCain". Again this would generally be considered to be unacceptable psychological manipulation.
Let's examine something else. What if McCain were to give a speech to the American people and at the start of his speech he mentioned that his campaign hired some neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis experts to write and help coach McCain in his speech delivery. What if McCain told the American public that he would like to try the techniques out on them?
McCain could say "Reagan" and then point to himself. McCain could say "security" and put his hand over his heart. McCain could say "Obama" and scratch his armpit while making the "loser" symbol with his hand. Next McCain could bring out a watch on a chain and ask the audience to look into the watch as it rocked back and fourth as he tried to hypnotize them. He might ask them to relax and listen to his voice while instructing them to breathe in and out. He might ask them to count backwards or something. He might gain their trust by asking them to focus on undeniable facts like "you are here right now" and "you can hear my voice". Then after people are hypnotized he might implant a few hypnotic commands in a firm and confident voice saying something like "because you care about America, you must vote for John McCain as President of the United States".
Would this sort of neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis be acceptable? McCain would be attempting to get votes based on his ability to successfully use psychological techniques that manipulate people's thoughts. I might actually be OK with this made up scenario because, in the made up scenario, at least McCain was honest with the audience about his plans to use these psychological techniques on them.
However, what if McCain didn't tell the audience his carefully planned and orchestrated scheme to use neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis to manipulate their thoughts? How creepy would that be? What kind of a leader would try and brainwash people to get elected? What kind of opinion could a politician like that have of the American people? What if a politician did this sort of thing repeatedly in the various speeches throughout the campaign knowing full well the impact it could have on people, especially young people? What if these techniques worked and helped the politician get elected? Calling it is creepy is an understatement!
The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) has an interesting article about this very subject titled "Oratory - or hypnotic induction?" That article identifies numerous textbook examples of Obama's speeches that contain covert neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis. Was this intentional? Was this a coincidence? At the end of the "Oratory - or hypnotic induction" article, there is a link to a 67 page pdf file that goes into detail about the psychological manipulation that occurred in Obama's speeches. The 67 page document references exact locations in speeches so you can watch and listen to Obama and form your own opinions on the numerous examples cited. It is a sobering experience to read that document.
Also, although this isn't really a laughing matter, I made a funny self-help guide for people who have been Obamatized: Top 10 Signs Barack Obama Hypnotized You.
However, when does this sort of manipulation go over the line? What if you played a McCain commercial backwards and it said over and over that "You will vote for McCain because it will make you feel good". Most people, including myself, would consider that unacceptable psychological manipulation. What if there was some white noise in a McCain commercial and it could be shown that, embedded in the white noise, was a clear message that said "You must vote for McCain because our country needs McCain". Again this would generally be considered to be unacceptable psychological manipulation.
Let's examine something else. What if McCain were to give a speech to the American people and at the start of his speech he mentioned that his campaign hired some neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis experts to write and help coach McCain in his speech delivery. What if McCain told the American public that he would like to try the techniques out on them?
McCain could say "Reagan" and then point to himself. McCain could say "security" and put his hand over his heart. McCain could say "Obama" and scratch his armpit while making the "loser" symbol with his hand. Next McCain could bring out a watch on a chain and ask the audience to look into the watch as it rocked back and fourth as he tried to hypnotize them. He might ask them to relax and listen to his voice while instructing them to breathe in and out. He might ask them to count backwards or something. He might gain their trust by asking them to focus on undeniable facts like "you are here right now" and "you can hear my voice". Then after people are hypnotized he might implant a few hypnotic commands in a firm and confident voice saying something like "because you care about America, you must vote for John McCain as President of the United States".
Would this sort of neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis be acceptable? McCain would be attempting to get votes based on his ability to successfully use psychological techniques that manipulate people's thoughts. I might actually be OK with this made up scenario because, in the made up scenario, at least McCain was honest with the audience about his plans to use these psychological techniques on them.
However, what if McCain didn't tell the audience his carefully planned and orchestrated scheme to use neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis to manipulate their thoughts? How creepy would that be? What kind of a leader would try and brainwash people to get elected? What kind of opinion could a politician like that have of the American people? What if a politician did this sort of thing repeatedly in the various speeches throughout the campaign knowing full well the impact it could have on people, especially young people? What if these techniques worked and helped the politician get elected? Calling it is creepy is an understatement!
The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) has an interesting article about this very subject titled "Oratory - or hypnotic induction?" That article identifies numerous textbook examples of Obama's speeches that contain covert neuro-linguistic programming and hypnosis. Was this intentional? Was this a coincidence? At the end of the "Oratory - or hypnotic induction" article, there is a link to a 67 page pdf file that goes into detail about the psychological manipulation that occurred in Obama's speeches. The 67 page document references exact locations in speeches so you can watch and listen to Obama and form your own opinions on the numerous examples cited. It is a sobering experience to read that document.
Also, although this isn't really a laughing matter, I made a funny self-help guide for people who have been Obamatized: Top 10 Signs Barack Obama Hypnotized You.
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