I believe the stock market will play a major role in determining the next president of the United States. In particular, people tend to use the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a measure of how well our economy is doing. I decided to look into the closing value of the Dow on some key dates.
On January 14, 2000 the Dow closed at 11,722.98 which can serve to mark a high point of the Dow during the dot com bubble.
Around a year later, on January 19, 2001, the day before George W. Bush was inaugurated President, the Dow closed at 10,587.59.
On September 10, 2001 the Dow closed at 9,605.51.
A little more than a year after the attacks on September 11th, on October 9, 2002 the Dow closed at 7,286.27.
Five years later, on October 9, 2007 the Dow closed at 14,164.53. The Dow was thousands of points higher than the dot com bubble high.
Fast forward about a year, to less than a month before the election and on October 10, 2008, the Dow closed at 8,451.19.
Where will the Dow close on November 4, 2008? If the Dow closes below 10,000 then I predict Obama wins. If the Dow closes above 11,000 then I predict McCain wins.
Update: On November 4, 2008 the Dow closed at 9,625.28 and Obama won.
